After reporting that sources had confirmed Jim Irsay's intentions to indeed take Andrew Luck with the first pick in the draft, Chris Mortensen reported another interesting piece of info on playoff Sunday: Peyton Manning will not be traded.
Speculation of such "trade scenarios" have run rampant ever since the Colts slipped into a winless funk that firmly pointed the franchise in the direction of "winning" the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Multiple teams have been mentioned as possible destinations for Manning, including the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.
So, does the guarantee of no Manning trade guarantee that the all-time great will be with the Colts in 2012?
Hardly.
Despite the fact that Mortensen emphasized Irsay will not trade his star quarterback, Mortensen also mentioned the possibility of Manning being cut. This, of course, would be based on one determination:
Health.
As reported by Peter King, Irsay regards Manning's future as a "family decision", not that of business. Therefore, it's extremely hard to see Irsay letting a healthy Manning go -- or Manning requesting to leave -- even with the prospect of drafting his replacement this year. When Irsay speaks about crucial pieces to the future, as he did regarding Manning before the Colts win over the Texans on Thursday Night Football, I take notice and treat it as genuine. Hearing it from the horse's mouth is enough for me.
What's certain is that the Manning saga and the drama surrounding it will only continue to build, and build, and build, amidst rapid speculation. Some of which we are guilty for, no doubt. But it's only natural for these monumental circumstances.
The 8th of March is right around the corner, but the most interesting days could be those that follow the Manning bonus deadline. If Irsay decides to stick with the a healthy Peyton, will Oliver Luck begin his replication of the Archie/Eli Manning power play? And would he be justified in doing so?
The outcome may seem cut and dry in your eyes, but you could be in for a huge surprise, or two, or three, ladies and gents.
Fasten your seat belts and get your box of tissues ready, just in case.
1 recs | 46 comments
Regardless of what we think should happen
I am nearly certain that what will happen is if Manning is healthy he will stay with the Colts and if he isn’t then he will be cut. Regardless of which happens, Colts draft Luck.
Now, I am more so of the persuasion that if Manning is healthy then the Colts keep him and trade the pick, whereas if he is not then clearly Luck is drafted. That doesn’t matter though.
Sir Sci - January 9, 2012
^ This is my view, too ^
Wippersnapper - January 10, 2012
There is NOT one single person in the NFL we can sign or keep that is going to MAKE SURE we win a Super Bowl. You have to set yourself up for today and tomorrow. So what is the most logical thing to do…
1. Manning’s Health. Unless Manning calls Irsay and says "Hey, there is no way I can play football again." Irsay is going to pay the $28M to Manning, FACT. Which means NO MATTER WHAT… Manning is going to be playing for the Indianapolis Colts for 2012. If Manning plays well, we are sure to be better than an 8-8 team. What happens in 2013? Who knows, Manning decides to leave because his health or playability is gone? Manning wants to be traded because he wants another SB ring and thinks another team can offer it? Manning is back to 110% and can play for another 5 years, SO, we trade Andrew Luck to another team after learning from Manning for a year. Manning retires a Colt and Andrew Luck takes over after learning the system behind Manning for one year. Regardless – unless that phone call to Irsay happens! Manning & Luck are Colts in 2012.
2. Defense – Other than the drafting Manning’s successor, this year’s draft needs to be about the only thing the Colts need. Defense! Will we have an awesome defense in 2012? No. It is going to take a year or two to acclimate these rookies into great players. But we need the fresh blood and defense needs to change to a 4-3 Blitz heavy Defense. Our offense with Manning or Luck can put up points, so if we can simply stop the run and short yardage passes we win. So what if teams get those deep passes on us and score, it puts our offense back on the field to allow us to make even more points. We need to focus completely on defense. See my mock draft selections below as to how we strength this team a little today… but more for the future.
3. Offense – The draft in 2013 should see us a LOT higher than we are now… heck nowhere to go but up! We are still pass heavy but at least we should have a bit better of a run game with a stronger O-line whom will receive a full training camp this year. BUT, in 2013 our defense should be much better from the 2012 draft AND in 2013 we can go after a top WR and then fill in the gaps as needed.
4. Having Manning and Luck for AT LEAST one year makes the most sense. You don’t just abandon a player like Manning without at LEAST giving him a shot to see if he still has it. If he does, we go right back to being a playoff contender. If not, then he made a lot more money to play one season. Luck learned from the best and the Colts are setup for success for the next 10 years. If money is the issue… money management can make sure this team is successful. Dallas Clark and Gary Brackett being cut would open up $10 million in cap. If we were to cut Bethea, that is another $5 million.
5. Who we need to keep… As much as I like Wayne, he is really not needed… nice to have? Yes! Works well with Manning and gets coverage and can still help this team but if he wants a huge contract, bye-bye. Mathis and Garcon on the only people that I believe we need to have. Building a defense between and behind Mathis and Freeney gives us the best option to hold teams down.
In the Draft (depending on who is available, I put multiple options for each round on what I might be looking for. The person in the first position is who I would want for each round):
Round 1: Andrew Luck QB
Round 2: Chase Minnifield CB, (Jayron Hosley CB, Mark Barron SS, Dontari Poe NT)
Round 3: Josh Chapman NT, (Robert Lester S, Tank Carder LB)
Round 4: Tony Dye SS, (Antonio Allen S, Brian Quick WR, AJ Jenkins WR)
Round 5: Nigel Bradham LB, (Ryan Steed CB, DaJohn Harris DT, Mike Martin DT)
Round 6: Mychal Kendricks LB, (Juron Criner WR, DeQuan Menzie CB, Jerry Franklin LB)
Round 7: William Vlachos C, (Jarret Boykin WR, Sammy Brown LB, Blake Gideon FS)
TheSpear - January 10, 2012
Your comment 'No one guarantees a superbowl' goes without saying...
We’re looking at scenarios that give the team the best chance at a superbowl. It the Colts have a healthy manning, trading the pick makes the most sense for winning a superbowl now. The scenario you talk about is the ‘one foot in each boat’ scenario. I am also of the frame of mind of getting 2 first rounders and a 2nd this year along with a 1st and a 2nd next year for the luck pick. Having such a windfall of early round talent can fill a lot of holes.
Mark Olson - January 10, 2012
Please explain to me
how a team could provide more than 1 first round pick for this year’s draft in a trade? Wouldn’t that require either a 3 team deal? Or a team that already has multiple picks from a prior year trade?
What teams have more than 1 pick in this years 1st round?
ruascott - January 10, 2012
Cleveland Browns have #4 and #22 (from Falcons)
If you really wanted to push it, it’s possible the Colts could obtain 3 1st rounders if they traded the #22 to the Pats for the Pats 2 first rounders (1 of them from the Saints.)
Mark Olson - January 10, 2012
Cincy
Also has 2 first round picks. Their own and the Raiders. Neither Cincy or New England has much use for the #1 pick though. So to get 2 1st rounders this year it’s likely Cleveland or bust unless there are some moves getting closer to the draft.
Meat Tuperello - January 10, 2012
A possibility
It may be possible that the Colts draft Luck, and a team makes some moves to turn up an extra pick in order to trade for the rights to Luck. There are plenty of ways it could turn out.
PeytonTheManning - January 10, 2012
Cincy or NE might want to jump a few spots though
Keep Cleveland’s early pick and trade the latter for a 1st rounder a few picks later and an extra draft pick.
Mark Olson - January 14, 2012
Your cap relief
The statement about cutting Clark, Brackett, and Bathea is way off. First, they all had signing bonuses. They are prorated over the contract for salary cap numbers. If you cut them, the entire remainder immediately hits the cap this season. That is why Brackett would only save $200-700k this season. I could still see cutting Brackett for the savings the next two seasons.
Second, why would you cut Bethea before Bullitt? Bullitt should be a backup, and Bathea is a top 10 safety. That one made no sense.
I also don’t believe your entire argument of building the defense, if we keep Manning. With the way the NFL is currently going, you either need a premier QB with a ton of options to run up the score, or you need a great running game and defense. We have a premier QB in Manning with an average running game and below average defense. Why try to rebuild two facets instead of loading up one?
Look at the playoffs this season with the new kickoff rules pinning teams back, and the new rules on hitting receivers letting guys go over the middle without fear.
Four teams had a QB who passed over 4900 yards. Three had 40+ TDs. The Pats, Packers, and Saints all have bottom 10 defenses. There are also 4 teams who got in on defense and running the ball. The only team that didn’t have a QB putting up amazing stats, or a top 10 defense is the Broncos.
The easiest way to stay in the playoff hunt, and give the team a chance of winning it all, is to give Manning as many playmakers as possible. They just aren’t going to be able to change the defense into a powerhouse in the next two years.
PeytonTheManning - January 10, 2012
This is why I think, if healthy, Manning will be a Colt next year...
next year is going to be a bad, bad cap year for the Colts. With the likely cuts that are coming in the form of Brackett, Clark and Bullitt, plus perhaps Addai and maybe a few others, you take it in the shorts in the upcoming season from a cap standpoint. So, take a healthy Manning and Luck to learn under because next year is going to be a tough year anyway. Then you’re setup for 2013 and beyond.
Yougotme - January 10, 2012
Common Sense...
Tells us that Irsay wants Manning to stay and Manning wants to stay. Based on his health and how long he still wants to play they will sit and discuss a contract…
(If) he is 100% healthy and wants to play out 4-5 more years I think it’s very possible they retain him and trade the pick…but if his health is a question mark I expect the Colts to release him.
Even if he stays I think they redo the deal at a cheaper price so they have some cap space to sign a viable backup like a Garrard…
(206)NightRidah - January 9, 2012 via mobile
This is not new..Luck is coming to the Colts but Irsay will never trade Manning
Manning’s dad is unsure that he is going to play in 2012.
armycolts25 - January 9, 2012
um...
Didn’t we all already know this? Why would Irsay pay him a 28 Million bonus just to trade him? They can’t trade him before they pay him the bonus, the only option is to release him or keep him.
thehuntero - January 9, 2012
watch out :)
What’s certain is that the Manning saga and the drama surrounding it will only continue to build, and build, and build, amidst rapid speculation. Some of which we are guilty for, no doubt…
Don’t let BBS see or you will get banned….I’m kidding !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seriously….just joking :)
Ralla32 - January 9, 2012
Lol.
That’s including me. It’s our “job” to report and express our feelings/speculate. We can be right, dead wrong, or somewhere in the middle. That’s the beauty of it. BBS’ latest article was awesome. Strong and logical opinion.
Stew Blake - January 9, 2012
Mort's interview
As a strong supporter of Manning being back with the Colts in 2012, that interview on Mike & Big Joe on 1070 cast some serious doubt as to whether Manning will be in a Colts uniform next season. Mort seems pretty close to Manning, and it sounded like there will be some serious discussions between Manning and Irsay about the possibility that Manning could be cut and allowed to play for another team in 2012, even if he is technically healthy enough to play.
Obviously that would make the most sense to the Colts franchise financially and with the Luck era about to begin. It would just be heartbreaking to so many fans, including myself, because we took Manning and his health for granted for so many years and didn’t even get to see his production drop off like many QBs do as their careers enter the final stages. Instead, we get a “poof” and he’s gone. No closure at all to this great ride. Just sucks, really.
But, that said, now would be the best time for the team to cut salaries where possible and get younger (assuming Manning retires or is otherwise not on the team next season). It is also the best time to change philosophies on both offense and defense if the new GM wants that because the team will likely struggle for at least 1-2 more seasons so a philosophy change (ie switching to a 3-4 or away from the basic Cover 2) would make things no worse than they already will be.
Making the toughest decision of all regarding Manning would enable the new GM, if it’s an outside guy, to shape the franchise with the best young talent and mold it to fit his true vision and not a forced adaptation to the Polian vision.
A little longwinded, but just my two cents and what I gathered from listening to Mortensen this morning.
AceOfSpades - January 9, 2012
well said
i just hope they don’t go with the 3-4. i think it is the hot fad right now but will soon be used by everybody. kind of like the west coast offense, which has been so mutated and watered down that it’s hard to tell what it is anymore. not to mention the fact that defenses figured it out…
12over18 - January 9, 2012
If they could get a real NT
3-4 wouldn’t be as bad as most think. I’d take anything over the current status quo
(206)NightRidah - January 9, 2012 via mobile
i won't argue with that!
12over18 - January 9, 2012
The reason I have interest in the 3-4
Is more to keep options open to get the best Defensive mind possible…Houston switched and became a top tier D almost overnight.
Id prefer to see the colts stay with a 4-3 and play man coverage and blitz more kinda like the Giants’ scheme. But if a great coach will come here that’s a 3-4 guy or even a 4-6 guy that’s fine with me!
(206)NightRidah - January 10, 2012 via mobile
I like the 3-4
for Jerry Hughes future. I thought making him play 4-3 in the nfl was bad.
As for the rest…i dont know
arbuch02 - January 10, 2012
True. Won't get traded leaves open door of cut
Ugh. Hate those words. While we are at it, I agree with poster above, we really have to look at the offense to. I wouldn’t be the first to admit that PM is probably the only person that can run this offense. Painter and Dan O knew it, but couldn’t run it with near the perfection. So who’s to say Luck can run it either.
Probably have to bring in new offensive minds as well to put in systems that take advantage of Luck’s strengths.
(This is also why I say if PM DOES play next year, Caldwell stays: He was PM’s QB coach prior and he and Clyde know this system as well as PM. You would NOT want a brand new system for PM’s last two-three good years)
GotDebt - January 9, 2012
Laughing outloud
At Caldwell & Christensen knowing the system as good as Manning.
If they are dead set on drafting Luck, bring in the WCO since he’s running it in college. Manning will adapt and put in the effort and learn it and it’s a much more efficient offense than what we currently run.
Meat Tuperello - January 10, 2012
Irsay wants both.
I think Irsay wants Manning and Luck.
VERNON HOWELL - January 10, 2012 via Android app
he does
its his intention to keep both, as he said before he wants manning and luck to be like farve and rogers
Keysta101 - January 10, 2012
It's not out of the realm of possibilities
That if Manning proves to be healthy and is back to playing at a high level, Luck could be traded after the 2012 season for a boatload of picks too. They can worry about a QB of the future in the future if Manning has 100% nerve function. Franchise QBs come around more often than we think and there’s no reason to believe that another top level prospect won’t come around within the next 2-4 years. The Colts, if they trade the pick or trade Luck after next year, will still be in position to draft high regardless of the team’s success with Manning.
AceOfSpades - January 10, 2012
thats wrong
franchise qb’s do not come around often and when they do how can you guarantee we get him.
getting rid of luck in favor of a then 37 year old qb is beyond dumb
omahacolt - January 10, 2012
yeah pretty often
there are plenty of Franchise QBs in th league and plenty come and go
expecting another one to come out in the next 2-4 years isnt a stretch at all especially with Barkley waiting a year he was touted almost as much remember?
No theres not enough for all 32 teams but it could be possible to still land the right spot again could be not will happen and not that they are smart enough to play the cards exactly right to make it so
we just had Newton and Dalton and now comes Luck and RG3 next year will be Barkley and someone else probably and they are all shaping up that way not saying they are all on the same skill level but Newtons impressive Dalton went to the playoffs so its a strong start
seems like a good time to expect a QB
C.Settles - January 11, 2012
Its downright foolish
This almost cements that Manning will be a Colt in 2012. An owner said he wont trade a player and potentially get something good for him but would rather just flatout release him and get nothing? Are you kidding me? Wheres the logic? Im one of the few who believe that both Manning AND Luck will be on the roster next year. Either that or trading out of the #1 spot. I personally want both tho. Let Luck sit. Hes still a rookie, let him learn rather than throwing him into the fire like that.
Mikeflo - January 10, 2012
Makes perfect sense that BBS didnt write this
He’s quiet when actual FACTS come in about Manning instead of his constant speculation that he will not be with the Colts in 2012. Get off the Luck bandwagon BBS.
kballstar - January 10, 2012
Just until March and see what happens
BBS wants people to think he’s smart if he made the right assumption on what happens to Manning. And also be the one who said “I told you so”. Grow up.
kballstar - January 10, 2012
Oh please there are no facts we don’t know what’s going to happen this is speculation until draft day
CF4L - January 10, 2012
I bet Miss Cleo does
Can someone ask her what’s going to happen so we can put this to bed?
AceOfSpades - January 10, 2012
Great
I see no reason to trade Manning just because the Colts draft Luck…..Manning can for sure teach Luck a d few things and it may delay his career start but why not learn from the best and then move into the lineup one day when Manning retires….
Colts53 - January 10, 2012
Please this is nothing if Irsay thinks that Manning/Luck can be on the same team he’s mistaken and its a bad idea we have no team with 2 QBs we have way more needs than that if we want to compete.
CF4L - January 10, 2012
They can coexist
With the new rookie wage scale it is affordable to have Luck and PM on the same team. Yes this means that we probably won’t have Wayne and Mathis, but there is still plenty of room for the 6 other draft choices that we will get in April.
I think if PM is healthy he plays with the new young kids and maybe helps get a couple of wins by scoring points as the new D learns the system and then once the D is ready they hand the ball off to Luck. That is one way to keep a winning organization while rebuilding…Crazy huh
Mandy1979 - January 10, 2012
Yeah crazy because that won’t work at all. You still have two QBs with way too much $$$ invested in the position. That $$ can go getting more talent for this team.
Who’s the GM?
The coach? Who’s going to stay and who’s going to go. When you have two QBs you really have no QB at all. Pick one and move in that direction by keeping both you want your cake and eat it too and in an ideal world that would work but its not ideal. Either win now or plan for the future.
CF4L - January 10, 2012
yeah only keep one good QB
because that worked great the first time around
C.Settles - January 10, 2012
when you have 2 QBs
you really have 2 QBs this isnt college football where you can have 2 “starting” qbs that trade off
Theres a back up and a starter thats how a team is suppose to be run the successor should be waiting in the wings. Obviously it can only be done if its cap friendly which at this point we have no idea what the roster will look like so we dont know if it is or not to say it wont work at all is not true
We have more than that invested in QB this year and we still afforded all our draft and added some guys during the season all this talk about money is blown out of proportion
C.Settles - January 10, 2012
If Luck does not want to be here...
…then he can please fuck off. I would take 10 losing seasons over some bullshit drama.
Antillar - January 10, 2012
Uuuhhhhh
Ok….
BenD - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Pretty sure he never said he didn't want to be here...
Pretty sure he actually wants to be here…
Coltsfan1345 - January 10, 2012
LOL to you all
I am reading all this comments and can’t help to think that had manning played this season or anything else other than an 0-4 start had happened would we be talking about trading or cutting Manning? Did we all forget there was a lockout this year? the fact that Irsay gave manning is contract knowing that he was not 100% healthy?
Here’s my take, Manning is going to decide his fate not Irsay, because Irsayhas probably already committed to Manning being a Colt, because Manning has also committed to not doing what Brett Favre did to the packers organisation. Manning would have told Irsay i have 5 years left in me and I will retire, should you cut me, then i will kick your arse every year for the next 5 years, Just like he did for his drafting interview with the colts.
As for offense and defense they go hand in hand. The Playoffs are won by teams that can get that turnover. Let’s face it, NFL is a gun shy of Arena Football, its all QB play. I think the 5 yard contact by defense on recievers should be extended to 10 yards, its only fair because that is the ground they are protecting 10 yards..
kbreboot - January 10, 2012
this is my take
omahacolt - January 10, 2012
you watch too many disney movies
omahacolt - January 10, 2012
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